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This was my own feeling as I began investigating mathiness and the shaky foundations of modern economic science. Back then, governments invested incredible amounts of money in mathematical models of the stars. And, of course, despite collective faith that these models would improve the fate of the Chinese people, they did not.vetstingtervermclep.tk
A stral Science in Early Imperial China , a forthcoming book by the historian Daniel P Morgan, shows that in ancient China, as in the Western world, the most valuable type of mathematics was devoted to the realm of divinity — to the sky, in their case and to the market, in ours. Li models, like macroeconomic theories, were considered essential to good governance. The li numbers of heaven rest in thy person. It was an unquestioned article of faith: the mathematical patterns that govern the stars also govern the world.
Faith in a divine, invisible hand, made visible by mathematics. No wonder that a newly discovered text fragment from BCE extolls the virtues of mathematics over the humanities. In it, a student asks his teacher whether he should spend more time learning speech or numbers. Modern governments, universities and businesses underwrite the production of economic theory with huge amounts of capital. The same was true for li production in ancient China. Take the armillary sphere, such as the two-metre cage of graduated bronze rings in Nanjing, made to represent the celestial sphere and used to visualise data in three-dimensions.
As Morgan emphasises, the sphere was literally made of money. Bronze being the basis of the currency, governments were smelting cash by the metric ton to pour it into li. A divine, mathematical world-engine, built of cash, sanctifying the powers that be. The enormous investment in li depended on a huge assumption: that good government, successful rituals and agricultural productivity all depended upon the accuracy of li.
Does economics need less maths or more? | University of Cambridge
But there were, in fact, no practical advantages to the continued refinement of li models. The work of selecting auspicious days for imperial ceremonies thus benefited only in appearance from mathematical rigour. And of course the comets, plagues and earthquakes that these ceremonies promised to avert kept on coming. Farmers, for their part, went about business as usual. Occasional governmental efforts to scientifically micromanage farm life in different climes using li ended in famine and mass migration. Like many economic models today, li models were less important to practical affairs than their creators and consumers thought them to be.
And, like today, only a few people could understand them. In BCE, Emperor Wudi tasked high-level bureaucrats — including the Great Director of the Stars — with creating a new li that would glorify the beginning of his path to immortality. The equivalent in economic theory might be to grant a model high points for success in predicting short-term markets, while failing to deduct for missing the Great Recession. The debates of these ancient li experts bear a striking resemblance to those of present-day economists.
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Still, no one could agree which one was better. Nor, for that matter, was there any agreement on how they should be tested. In the end, a live trial involving the prediction of eclipses and heliacal risings was used to settle the debate. With the benefit of hindsight, we can see this trial was seriously flawed.
The helical rising first visibility of planets depends on non-mathematical factors such as eyesight and atmospheric conditions. Archers scored points for proximity to the bullseye, with no consideration for overall accuracy. None of this is to say that li models were useless or inherently unscientific. For the most part, li experts were genuine mathematical virtuosos who valued the integrity of their discipline. Despite being based on inaccurate assumptions — that the Earth was at the centre of the cosmos — their models really did work to predict celestial motions.
All of this is consistent with real science, and Chinese astronomy progressed as a science, until it reached the limits imposed by its assumptions.
However, there was no science to the belief that accurate li would improve the outcome of rituals, agriculture or government policy. No science to the Hall of Light, a temple for the emperor built on the model of a magic square. There, by numeric ritual gesture, the Son of Heaven was thought to channel the invisible order of heaven for the prosperity of man. Free Preview. Contains the most important formulas, statements and algorithms in mathematics and statistics for economists Compact and clearly arranged An efficient and easy-to-use work of reference see more benefits.
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FAQ Policy. About this Textbook The present collection of formulas has been composed for students of economics or management science at universities, colleges and trade schools. This carefully revised and enlarged edition also presents methods of rank statistics and the analysis of variance ANOVA and covariance. Show all.